森林作為地球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的核心組成部分，其價值遠(yuǎn)超傳統(tǒng)認(rèn)知中的木材產(chǎn)出。隨著生態(tài)經(jīng)濟學(xué)的發(fā)展，森林生態(tài)價值的量化逐漸從單一經(jīng)濟評估轉(zhuǎn)向多維生態(tài)服務(wù)核算。當(dāng)前主流方法可歸納為三大類：直接市場價值法、替代市場價值法及模擬市場價值法，各類方法在適用場景與精度上形成互補。

　　Forests, as a core component of the Earth's ecosystem, have a value far beyond traditional perception of timber production. With the development of ecological economics, the quantification of forest ecological value has gradually shifted from single economic evaluation to multidimensional ecological service accounting. The current mainstream methods can be classified into three categories: direct market value method, alternative market value method, and simulated market value method, which complement each other in terms of applicable scenarios and accuracy.

　　直接市場價值法：基于實物產(chǎn)出的經(jīng)濟核算

　　Direct Market Value Method: Economic Accounting Based on Physical Output

　　該方法通過測算森林直接產(chǎn)生的有形產(chǎn)品價值，構(gòu)建量化基礎(chǔ)。木材采伐、林下經(jīng)濟作物、藥用植物開發(fā)等均屬此類。以木材為例，需綜合考量樹種、胸徑、蓄積量等參數(shù)，結(jié)合市場價格波動曲線，計算可持續(xù)采伐的經(jīng)濟收益。某研究團隊在東北林區(qū)實踐中發(fā)現(xiàn)，采用動態(tài)價格模型替代固定單價，可使評估誤差降低18%。此外，林下經(jīng)濟作物如松茸、人參的產(chǎn)值，需納入生長周期、采摘成本及品質(zhì)分級等因素，避免簡單以產(chǎn)量乘以單價的粗放計算。

　　This method constructs a quantitative basis by measuring the tangible product value directly generated by forests. Wood harvesting, agroforestry, and medicinal plant development all fall under this category. Taking wood as an example, it is necessary to comprehensively consider parameters such as tree species, breast height diameter, and storage volume, combined with the market price fluctuation curve, to calculate the economic benefits of sustainable logging. A research team found in practice in the Northeast forest area that using a dynamic price model instead of a fixed unit price can reduce evaluation errors by 18%. In addition, the output value of agroforestry crops such as matsutake and ginseng should be taken into account factors such as growth cycle, harvesting cost, and quality grading, to avoid rough calculations based solely on yield multiplied by unit price.

　　替代市場價值法：生態(tài)功能的貨幣化轉(zhuǎn)換

　　Alternative Market Value Approach: Monetization of Ecological Functions

　　針對森林的調(diào)蓄水源、固碳釋氧、保持水土等無形服務(wù)，替代市場法通過尋找等價替代品或工程方案進(jìn)行估值。例如，森林涵養(yǎng)水源的價值可參照水庫建設(shè)成本，按每立方米蓄水量的工程投資折算。某流域治理項目顯示，通過對比同等蓄水量的混凝土水庫造價，測算出森林年生態(tài)服務(wù)價值達(dá)數(shù)億元。在固碳領(lǐng)域，國際通行的碳匯交易價格體系為量化提供基準(zhǔn)，但需結(jié)合森林類型、樹齡結(jié)構(gòu)修正碳匯能力參數(shù)。某亞熱帶林區(qū)案例表明，混交林的單位面積固碳量較純林高23%，凸顯樹種配置對估值的影響。

　　For intangible services such as regulating water sources, carbon sequestration and oxygen release, and soil and water conservation in forests, the alternative market method is used to value them by seeking equivalent alternatives or engineering solutions. For example, the value of forest water conservation can be calculated based on the cost of reservoir construction, calculated as the engineering investment per cubic meter of water storage capacity. A watershed management project shows that by comparing the cost of concrete reservoirs with the same storage capacity, the annual ecological service value of forests is estimated to be several hundred million yuan. In the field of carbon sequestration, the internationally recognized carbon trading price system provides a benchmark for quantification, but the carbon sequestration capacity parameters need to be adjusted based on forest type and tree age structure. A case study in a subtropical forest area shows that the carbon sequestration per unit area of mixed forests is 23% higher than that of pure forests, highlighting the impact of tree species configuration on valuation.

　　模擬市場價值法：公眾偏好的經(jīng)濟表達(dá)

　　Simulated Market Value Method: Economic Expression of Public Preference

　　當(dāng)生態(tài)服務(wù)缺乏實際市場時，模擬市場法通過構(gòu)建假設(shè)場景，捕捉公眾支付意愿。條件價值評估（CVM）是典型手段，其核心在于設(shè)計科學(xué)的調(diào)查問卷，避免引導(dǎo)性偏差。某研究機構(gòu)在長江流域采用雙邊界二分式CVM，發(fā)現(xiàn)居民對水質(zhì)改善的年支付意愿與收入水平呈0.67的彈性系數(shù)。選擇實驗法（CE）則通過多屬性權(quán)衡，量化生態(tài)服務(wù)組合價值。某保護(hù)區(qū)應(yīng)用CE模型后，揭示游客對生物多樣性保護(hù)的支付意愿較單純景觀價值高出40%，為保護(hù)區(qū)管理提供新視角。

　　When there is a lack of actual market for ecological services, the simulated market method captures public willingness to pay by constructing hypothetical scenarios. Conditional Value Assessment (CVM) is a typical approach, whose core lies in designing scientific survey questionnaires to avoid guiding biases. A research institution used a double boundary binary CVM in the Yangtze River Basin and found that residents' annual willingness to pay for water quality improvement showed an elasticity coefficient of 0.67 with their income level. The choice of experimental method (CE) quantifies the combined value of ecological services through multi-attribute trade-offs. After applying the CE model in a certain protected area, it was revealed that tourists' willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation is 40% higher than that of simple landscape value, providing a new perspective for protected area management.

　　量化挑戰(zhàn)與前沿方向

　　Quantitative challenges and cutting-edge directions

　　現(xiàn)有方法仍面臨時空異質(zhì)性、閾值效應(yīng)及文化價值捕獲等難題。同一森林在不同氣候條件下的服務(wù)功能差異可達(dá)3倍以上，要求建立動態(tài)監(jiān)測與情景模擬平臺。此外，森林對物種多樣性維持、氣候調(diào)節(jié)等閾值效應(yīng)，需通過生態(tài)系統(tǒng)模型與大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)深化認(rèn)知。在文化價值領(lǐng)域，民族生態(tài)學(xué)方法正被引入，通過參與式制圖量化傳統(tǒng)知識價值。未來，區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)有望實現(xiàn)生態(tài)價值流轉(zhuǎn)的可信追溯，而人工智能將提升多源數(shù)據(jù)融合效率，推動森林生態(tài)價值量化向精準(zhǔn)化、實時化演進(jìn)。

　　The existing methods still face challenges such as spatiotemporal heterogeneity, threshold effects, and cultural value capture. The service functions of the same forest can vary by more than three times under different climatic conditions, requiring the establishment of a dynamic monitoring and scenario simulation platform. In addition, the threshold effects of forests on species diversity maintenance and climate regulation need to be further understood through ecosystem models and big data technologies. In the field of cultural values, ethnic ecological methods are being introduced to quantify the value of traditional knowledge through participatory mapping. In the future, blockchain technology is expected to achieve trustworthy traceability of ecological value circulation, while artificial intelligence will improve the efficiency of multi-source data fusion and promote the evolution of forest ecological value quantification towards precision and real-time.

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