經(jīng)濟(jì)林資源資產(chǎn)評(píng)估的核心是衡量一片林地及其產(chǎn)出的價(jià)值，常見(jiàn)的評(píng)估方式主要從三個(gè)不同角度出發(fā)，每種方法都有其適用場(chǎng)景和計(jì)算邏輯，下面用更貼近生活的語(yǔ)言來(lái)解釋：

The core of economic forest resource asset evaluation is to measure the value of a forest land and its output. Common evaluation methods mainly start from three different perspectives, each with its own applicable scenarios and calculation logic. Below, we will explain in more realistic language:

一、從 “市場(chǎng)參考” 出發(fā)：找同類交易比著算

1、 Starting from "market reference": compare and calculate similar transactions

這種方法就像買二手房時(shí)參考周邊相似房子的成交價(jià)。評(píng)估時(shí)，先去找市場(chǎng)上最近賣出去的、和目標(biāo)經(jīng)濟(jì)林差不多的林地交易信息，比如同樣種了蘋(píng)果、核桃，樹(shù)齡相近，生長(zhǎng)條件類似的林子賣了多少錢(qián)。然后對(duì)比目標(biāo)林地和這些案例的差別：比如人家的林子交通更方便，或者果樹(shù)產(chǎn)量更高，就根據(jù)這些差異調(diào)整價(jià)格 —— 如果目標(biāo)林地的果樹(shù)長(zhǎng)得更旺盛，就比案例價(jià)格高一點(diǎn)；反之就低一點(diǎn)。

This method is like referring to the transaction prices of similar houses in the surrounding area when buying a second-hand house. When evaluating, first look for trading information on forest land that has recently been sold in the market and is similar to the target economic forest, such as how much money has been sold for forests that are also planted with apples and walnuts, have similar ages, and have similar growth conditions. Then compare the differences between the target forest land and these cases: for example, if someone's forest land has more convenient transportation or higher fruit tree yields, adjust the price based on these differences - if the fruit trees in the target forest land grow more vigorously, the price will be slightly higher than the case price; On the contrary, it is slightly lower.

適合情況：當(dāng)市面上類似的經(jīng)濟(jì)林交易比較多，比如常見(jiàn)的桃園、梨園，很容易找到參考對(duì)象時(shí)，用這種方法最直接。

Suitable situation: When there are many similar economic forest transactions on the market, such as common peach orchards and pear orchards, and it is easy to find reference objects, this method is the most direct.

二、從 “未來(lái)能賺多少錢(qián)” 出發(fā)：算清楚長(zhǎng)期收益賬

2、 Starting from "how much money can be earned in the future": calculate the long-term income account clearly

如果一片經(jīng)濟(jì)林已經(jīng)進(jìn)入穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)出期，比如盛果期的柑橘林、板栗林，每年能結(jié)多少果子、賣多少錢(qián)都比較穩(wěn)定，就可以用這種方法。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，就是先預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)十幾年（甚至幾十年）這片林子每年能賺多少錢(qián)：比如今年賣果子收入 10 萬(wàn)元，減去施肥、人工、采摘等成本 3 萬(wàn)元，凈賺 7 萬(wàn)元；明年可能產(chǎn)量高一點(diǎn)，賺 8 萬(wàn)元…… 一直估算到果樹(shù)老化需要更新的年份。然后把這些未來(lái)每年的凈收益，按照 “錢(qián)在當(dāng)下更值錢(qián)” 的道理（比如考慮銀行利率、投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)），折算成現(xiàn)在的價(jià)值總和。

If an economic forest has entered a stable production period, such as a citrus forest or chestnut forest in its peak fruiting period, and the number of fruits it can produce and the amount of money it can sell each year are relatively stable, this method can be used. Specifically, it is to predict how much money this forest will earn annually in the next decade (or even decades): for example, this year's fruit sales revenue is 100000 yuan, minus the costs of fertilization, labor, and harvesting of 30000 yuan, the net profit is 70000 yuan; Next year, the yield may be slightly higher, earning 80000 yuan... estimated until the year when the fruit trees age and need to be renewed. Then convert these future annual net returns into the current total value based on the principle that "money is more valuable in the present" (such as considering bank interest rates and investment risks).

關(guān)鍵邏輯：現(xiàn)在投入的錢(qián)能在未來(lái)慢慢賺回來(lái)，把未來(lái)的收益 “打個(gè)折” 算成現(xiàn)在值多少錢(qián)，更能體現(xiàn)林地的長(zhǎng)期價(jià)值。

Key logic: The money invested now can be slowly earned back in the future, and calculating the current value of the forest land by "discounting" the future earnings can better reflect the long-term value of the forest land.

三、從 “重新種一片要花多少錢(qián)” 出發(fā)：算成本扣損耗

3、 Starting from 'How much does it cost to replant': calculate cost minus loss

如果是剛種不久的經(jīng)濟(jì)林，比如剛栽了兩年的油茶苗，或者市場(chǎng)上很難找到類似交易案例，也預(yù)測(cè)不了未來(lái)收益，就可以用成本法。這種方法就像算 “重置成本”：假設(shè)現(xiàn)在重新種一片同樣的林子，需要買多少樹(shù)苗、雇人整地挖坑、澆水施肥、管理養(yǎng)護(hù)，把這些所有的花費(fèi)加起來(lái)，得到 “重新種一片的總成本”。然后再看目標(biāo)林地的樹(shù)木生長(zhǎng)情況：如果樹(shù)苗成活率高、長(zhǎng)得健壯，“成新率” 就高（比如 90%）；如果部分樹(shù)苗枯死，成新率就低（比如 70%）。最后用總成本乘以成新率，就是這片林地的評(píng)估價(jià)值。

If it is a newly planted economic forest, such as oil tea seedlings that have only been planted for two years, or if it is difficult to find similar trading cases in the market and future returns cannot be predicted, the cost method can be used. This method is like calculating the "reset cost": assuming that planting the same forest now requires buying how many saplings, hiring people to dig pits, watering and fertilizing, and managing and maintaining, adding up all these expenses gives the "total cost of replanting". Then look at the growth of trees in the target forest: if the survival rate of seedlings is high and they grow strong, the "newness rate" will be high (such as 90%); If some saplings die, the regeneration rate will be low (such as 70%). Finally, multiplying the total cost by the newness rate is the assessed value of this forest land.

適合情況：新造林地、幼齡林，或者難以通過(guò)市場(chǎng)交易和收益預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估時(shí)，用成本法更踏實(shí)。

Suitable situation: When new forest land, young forest land, or when it is difficult to evaluate through market transactions and income forecasting, the cost method is more practical.

本文由森林資源資產(chǎn)評(píng)估友情奉獻(xiàn).更多有關(guān)的知識(shí)請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊:http://www.mariotti-pecini.com.cn我們將會(huì)對(duì)您提出的疑問(wèn)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的解答，歡迎您登錄網(wǎng)站留言.

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